By Vice President Kamala Harris may be ready to make her move against Joe Biden, and now she has the polling to prove it.
Despite being considered one of the worst vice president’s in history, Biden’s collapse following his disastrous debate and tone-deaf response has caused Democrats to consider the once unthinkable: dumping Joe Biden for Harris.
The National Review reports that Harris may finally have the evidence to not only make her move against the sitting president, but also knockout the candidate most Democrats hope receives the nomination.
Perhaps the last bulwark standing between Joe Biden and a mob of petrified Democrats demanding his ouster is the general perception that his most likely successor, Kamala Harris, would underperform even the incumbent president in a general election against Donald Trump.
CNN’s post-debate polling has thrown cold water on that assumption:
CNN poll:
Trump 49
Biden 43Trump 47
Harris 45https://t.co/KN58sTDKQm— Conor Sen (@conorsen) July 2, 2024
In this survey of registered voters, Harris outperforms Biden among women and independents, which is only likely to cement the impression among a majority of registered Democrats (56 percent in CNN’s survey) that the Democratic Party has a better chance of winning in November if Biden isn’t on the ticket. This is not, however, reflective of a shift in how the public views Harris. With a pathetic 29 percent favorability rating, the vice president remains deeply unpopular.
Interestingly, CNN’s pollster also tested how Trump would perform against some other potential Democratic presidential nominees, including Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, and Gretchen Whitmer. Harris outperformed them all, though Donald Trump’s share of the vote improved only marginally in a contest against Newsom. But as CNN’s write-up of its poll observes, Harris is the best known to potential general-election voters, and her performance is likely attributable to widespread name recognition alone. If someone other than Harris was plucked from the Democratic bench to stand in for Biden, their relative obscurity would be swiftly remedied.
You know things are dire when the argument for Democrats is that the extremely unpopular vice president polls slightly better than her rivals, but still loses to Trump in national polling.
CNN Post-debate Poll
Trump 49% (+6)
Biden 43%Trump 47% (+2)
Harris 45%Trump 48% (+5)
Newsom 43%Trump 47% (+4)
Buttigieg 43%Trump 47% (+5)
Whitmer 42% pic.twitter.com/MhkCl5aqvX— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 2, 2024
This isn’t the first time that Harris has polled better than Biden. Last November, Harris outpolled Biden in several swing states, according to Newsweek.
“In a New York Times/Siena College poll that was conducted from October 22 to November 3, when voters were asked who they would choose for president if the options were between Harris and Trump, 47 percent in Michigan said Trump and 45 percent said Harris. Meanwhile, in a matchup between Biden and Trump, 48 percent of voters in Michigan chose the former president and 43 percent chose Biden.
In Georgia, Trump received 45 percent of the vote while the vice president nabbed 44 percent. However when Trump is up against Biden, he received 49 percent of the vote compared to Biden’s 43 percent.
Harris also gets more support in Nevada than Biden when each of them are up against Trump. Approximately 48 percent of voters in Nevada picked Trump over Harris, while Harris received 42 percent of voter support. However, when Biden is on the ballot with Trump, the former president has an 11-point lead, 52 to 41 percent.
Biden does better than Harris while on the ballot with Trump in Wisconsin and Arizona. In Wisconsin, the former president nabbed 47 percent of the vote while Harris received 46 percent. Biden had the lead over Trump in Wisconsin, 47 to 45 percent.”
If Kamala does take the reins, she will have work to do. CNN writes that “among all registered voters, 31% either say they could change their minds between now and Election Day or do not support a specific candidate. The almost 7 in 10 voters who have made up their minds break heavily for Trump – 53% to 45%. In order to overtake Trump, Biden would have to bring a significant share of these movable voters to his side, though they currently split 39% for Trump to 37% for Biden in a two-way matchup; 8% say they’d back someone else and 14% that they don’t plan to vote.
These persuadable voters are more likely to dislike both Trump and Biden (38% have an unfavorable view of both candidates, compared with 9% among voters who have made a choice), and are less likely to see important differences between Biden and Trump (18% say they are pretty much the same, compared with 5% of those who have made a choice).
These voters are also more likely to support an alternative Democrat against Trump than they are to choose Biden. In hypothetical matchups, they break 47% for Harris to 34% for Trump, 42% for Newsom to 36% for Trump, and 42% for Buttigieg to 35% for Trump.”
The irony of a Harris rise to the top of the ticket is that many liberals recently called for Biden to drop her entirely. Just a few weeks ago, before the debate, Politico reported that most voters dislike Harris and that she’d struggle to take on Donald Trump.
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