By Tensions between the United States and Mexico have intensified following a stark warning from U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who suggested that Washington is prepared to take unilateral military action should Mexico fail to curb the influence of drug cartels within its government.
During a high-level discussion on January 31, Hegseth told Mexican military officials that the United States would intervene if Mexico did not take stronger measures against drug trafficking organizations, reported The Wall Street Journal.
This warning casts a shadow over ongoing trade negotiations between Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration and President Donald Trump. Beyond economic concerns, Mexican officials fear that demands to stem fentanyl smuggling and curb migration flows may now be underpinned by the threat of U.S. military force. Trump has already pledged to impose 25 percent tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports, unless these issues are addressed.
“We still have three days,” Sheinbaum remarked on Friday, alluding to the looming deadline. Her administration has prioritized demonstrating tangible progress on border security and drug interdiction in an effort to stave off tariffs. In February, Mexico managed to secure a temporary reprieve by deploying 10,000 National Guard troops to its northern border. However, Trump has signaled growing impatience, declaring on social media that drugs continue to enter the U.S. at “unacceptable levels.”
In a bid to alleviate tensions, Mexico recently extradited 29 alleged cartel leaders to the United States, a move widely seen as an effort to placate Trump. Among them was Rafael Caro Quintero, the notorious drug lord accused of orchestrating the 1985 murder of DEA agent Enrique “Kiki” Camarena. Mexico’s Attorney General Alejandro Gertz defended the expedited extraditions, citing national security concerns and asserting, “There’s no justification for sanctions against Mexico.”
In response to mounting pressure, Mexico has explored alternative strategies, including aligning with U.S. economic policies against China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed that Mexican officials had proposed mirroring U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. Additionally, Mexico has taken steps against Chinese businesses operating within its borders, including raids on electronics vendors, the halting of a planned factory by Chinese automaker BYD, and the launch of anti-dumping investigations.
Further complicating diplomatic relations, though, could be the Mexican leader’s alleged connections to the drug cartels. Sheinbaum has warned that U.S. firearms manufacturers could face legal action if the Trump administration moves forward with plans to designate Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations. This classification, which the State Department has begun implementing under a Trump executive order, would allow the U.S. to impose economic sanctions on individuals and entities linked to cartels—potentially expanding American intervention in Mexico’s security crisis. Sheinbaum argues that such a designation could justify lawsuits against U.S. gun manufacturers for allegedly facilitating cartel violence through arms trafficking.
Beyond the firearms dispute, Sheinbaum has also threatened legal action against Google over its labeling of the Gulf of Mexico on U.S. maps, signaling a broader diplomatic pushback against American policies. The growing friction highlights the complex intersection of security, commerce, and international law as both nations grapple with the consequences of cartel-related violence and cross-border arms trafficking.
With the new designation for the cartels, the possibility of U.S. military intervention in Mexico—once dismissed as unlikely—is now being seriously analyzed, according to The New York Post. On Capitol Hill, a group of former U.S. and Mexican officials, congressional aides, and security experts recently conducted a war-game simulation to assess the potential fallout of such an action. The exercise predicted severe disruptions in trade, border closures, and a deterioration in binational security cooperation, including intelligence-sharing programs against cartels.
During a visit to the U.S.-Mexico border and later at Guantanamo Bay, Hegseth reiterated that “nothing is off the table” in the fight against cartel activity. The historical precedent of U.S. military interventions in Mexico—from the 1846 war that resulted in the loss of half of Mexico’s territory to 20th-century incursions—adds further unease to an already volatile situation.
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