By Anxiety over Democratic Socialist frontrunner Zohran Mamdani has New Yorkers gaming out exits—and high-end suburbs bracing for impact. A J.L. Partners poll shows 9% of the city’s 8.4 million residents—about 765,000 people—say they would “definitely” leave if the 34-year-old assemblyman wins, according to The New York Post. Another 25%—roughly 2.12 million—would “consider” it. That’s a potential outflow larger than Washington, D.C., or Seattle.
The unease is sharpest among top earners: 7% of households making $250,000+ say they’ll bolt immediately. Men are more resolved than women (12% to 7%). New Yorkers 50–64 show the highest urgency (12% certain, 33% considering). White (13%) and Asian (11%) residents register the strongest intent to move. Staten Island leads the flight math: 21% plan to go, 54% are pondering it. Manhattan looks steadier (6% definite, 20% considering), with Brooklyn at 8% and 18%.
Pollster James Johnson didn’t sugarcoat it. “If anywhere near that number actually left, the economic impact would be seismic.” Asked what a Mamdani administration conjures, respondents reached for bleak language: a “disaster,” “hell,” and—“cover your ears, kids”—a “sh–hole.”
Wall Street wallets aren’t just talking. They’re transacting. Brokers from Westchester to northern New Jersey to Connecticut’s Gold Coast describe a surge of affluent buyers tying up inventory at speed. The catalyst, they say, is politics—Mamdani’s polling lead and a platform heavy on higher taxes and expansive affordable-housing plans.
“Affluent New Yorkers concerned about the upcoming election are driving a surge in demand for suburban markets within commuting distance to the city. Areas like Greenwich, Darien, and New Canaan, Connecticut, are seeing prices climb rapidly as high-income buyers look to relocate in anticipation of potential tax increases and policy changes,” said Mark S. Fisher, regional vice president at UNMB Home Loans Inc.
Data from the field match the mood. In Westchester, pending sales are up about 15% year-over-year; showings have jumped more than 25% since late summer, according to Compass brokers Zach and Heather Harrison. “Concerns about higher taxes, safety, and a desire for more space are driving people to act quickly,” said Zach Harrison. “We’re seeing bidding wars well into the multimillion-dollar range.” Heather Harrison added the moment has a familiar feel: “It feels like the pandemic all over again, but with more urgency.”
Agents have a name for it—the “Mamdani Effect.” Manhattan and Brooklyn buyers are tossing in aggressive, sometimes sight-unseen offers, well over ask, to secure a landing spot. The frenzy defies national trends. While listings nationwide climbed 15.3% year-on-year and average market time sits at 63 days, elite commuter belts are moving the other way.
Greenwich inventory has fallen more than 80% since 2019—just 2.7 months of supply—fueling swift deals. “Contracts have surged in the past five weeks,” said Compass’s Mark Pruner, pointing to a $2.4 million listing that closed at $2.96 million. “This is the strongest top-end market we’ve seen in years.”
Northern New Jersey is running hot, too: one Fair Lawn sale closed 8% over ask; a Cedar Grove listing drew 17 offers. Softer mortgage rates add tailwind, but agents insist politics is the prime mover.
Residents aren’t the only ones who may be eyeing the exits from the Big Apple. Earlier in the year, the New York Stock Exchange announced that it was opening a second headquarters in Texas.
If Mamdani prevails, the poll’s warning lights suggest effects far beyond city lines—on tax bases, housing flows, and urban-suburban migration for years to come. For now, the “Mamdani Effect” is where politics meets price: fear translated into contracts, and campaign promises measured in days on market.
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