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Trump’s Strategy Pays Off: Oil Moves Through Hormuz

[Marc Nozell from Merrimack, New Hampshire, USA, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons]

The United States is quietly doing something Iran has spent months insisting it would never allow: moving millions of barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz under American military protection.

U.S. forces have established a tightly controlled shipping corridor through the southern portion of the strait, allowing 15 to 20 oil tankers to move through the strategic waterway each night, according to two U.S. officials who spoke to Axios. The operation is now moving roughly 10 million barrels of oil per day—about half the volume that passed through Hormuz before the war.

The operation comes as President Donald Trump has become increasingly explicit about his intention to wrest control of the waterway away from Iran. On Friday, Trump said he planned to declare the Strait of Hormuz U.S. territory after defeating Iran. Days later, he went further, posting a map on Truth Social labeling the strait “New U.S. Territory.”

He has also promised that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.

The military operation suggests that, at least in practical terms, Washington is already beginning to make good on that threat.

Under the American-controlled corridor, tankers travel through a southern channel along Oman’s coast. U.S. forces are not merely escorting loaded ships out of the Persian Gulf. They are also guiding empty tankers from the Arabian Sea into the Gulf, where they can load oil at regional ports before making the return trip under American protection.

“We have been controlling the southern lane of the Strait of Hormuz for two months now. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps can be a nuisance, but they don’t control the strait. We do,” one of the U.S. officials, who has direct knowledge of the matter, said.

A task force operating from Army headquarters at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, manages the corridor with American allies in the Gulf. Each day, military planners prepare schedules for ships leaving the Gulf and empty tankers entering it.

The vessels then travel in coordinated nighttime convoys, with separate windows for inbound and outbound ships. Air Force fighter jets fly overhead to protect the tankers from Iranian drones and cruise missiles.

The arrangement became possible after a two-week U.S. Central Command campaign severely damaged Iran’s radar and maritime surveillance network along the strait, according to U.S. officials. Tehran is now largely dependent on a handful of repaired radar installations and spotters aboard small Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps boats.

Iran has continued trying to strike ships traveling through the area, launching drones and cruise missiles toward locations where it believes the American-organized convoys will pass. Some vessels have been hit, but U.S. forces have intercepted many of the attacks. Earlier this week, American forces shot down eight Iranian drones and two cruise missiles, according to one official.

The result is a remarkable reversal in the battle over one of the world’s most important waterways.

Iran has repeatedly claimed that it controls the Strait of Hormuz and has used its ability to disrupt shipping as economic leverage against the United States and its allies. As recently as last week, Iranian officials insisted that the strait would remain closed until Washington accepted defeat. Trump responded by saying American control of the waterway was coming.

Now oil is moving again—under American rules.

During the past two weeks, the nightly convoys of 15 to 20 tankers have pushed average exports toward 10 million barrels per day. On some nights, between 15 million and 20 million barrels have moved through the corridor. More than 20 vessels were scheduled to make the passage on one night this week, potentially carrying approximately 15 million barrels.

That remains well below pre-war traffic, but the shipments are putting badly needed crude back onto global markets after the conflict and disruption in Hormuz sent energy prices higher.

“There is a tremendous amount of oil coming out of the Strait of Hormuz,” President Trump told Axios on Wednesday.

Trump also dismissed the possibility that diplomacy with Tehran was about to resume.

“They are wasting time. It’s a waste of time to negotiate with them,” he said.

“The Iranians still have some fight left, but overall they are a shell of themselves,” Trump said.

After months of Iran portraying Hormuz as its economic chokehold on the West, the United States is now moving tanker convoys through the strait every night while American fighters patrol overhead. Trump may have shocked observers when he threatened to turn Hormuz into American territory.

The U.S. military appears to be treating at least part of it that way already, showing that Trump’s strategy, in the longterm, has begun to pay off.

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