By President Donald Trump has driven illegal border crossings to new lows since returning to office in January 2025, but a new analysis finds that cuts to legal immigration have been significantly larger in scale.
The analysis, conducted by David J. Bier of the Cato Institute, concludes that while illegal entries have continued a downward trend that began before Trump’s second term, reductions across multiple legal immigration categories have reversed years of growth and outpaced those declines.
According to Bier’s findings, illegal immigration had already fallen sharply prior to Trump’s inauguration. Border Patrol arrests at the southwest border dropped 82 percent from December 2024 to March 2025, but 81 percent of that decline from the December 2023 peak had already occurred by the end of 2024. In total, 83 percent of the drop from peak levels took place under President Joe Biden.
Border Patrol releases followed a similar pattern, falling 96 percent from their peak before Trump took office—indicating that most of that reduction occurred during the previous administration.
“Gotaways”—migrants recorded as evading Border Patrol—also declined significantly, falling about 80 percent from December 2024 to September 2025, the most recent available data. However, those figures had already decreased by 83 percent from their November 2022 peak prior to Trump’s return.
The Trump administration has credited its policies for the continued decline, pointing to an executive order directing Border Patrol to immediately return illegal crossers rather than process asylum claims. In an amicus brief tied to ongoing legal challenges, Bier argues that explanation may be incomplete, noting that arrests of unaccompanied minors—who are exempt from the order—fell at a similar pace. He suggests broader factors, including deterrence effects and economic conditions, may be contributing to the trend.
While illegal entries have declined, Bier’s analysis finds that legal immigration pathways have been reduced more sharply across several categories.
Legal entries by asylum seekers at southwest border ports dropped 99.9 percent, falling from nearly 40,000 in December 2024 to just 26 in February 2025. The administration eliminated the CBP One app and reinstated a ban on asylum processing at the border, a policy also used during Trump’s first term.
Refugee admissions have also fallen steeply. Monthly admissions dropped nearly 90 percent, from 12,518 in December 2024 to 1,341 in March 2026. The administration initially suspended the refugee program before restarting it with a narrower focus, including an emphasis on white South African applicants. The fiscal year 2026 cap was set at 7,500—implying roughly 500 admissions per month for the remainder of the year. Many of those blocked, according to the analysis, were persecuted Christians.
Immigrant visas for permanent residency appear to have declined by roughly half. While full State Department data has not been released since September 2025, policy changes have significantly restricted eligibility. Beginning January 1, 2026, the administration barred immigrant visas for nationals of 40 countries, later expanding the list to 92 countries by late January. The restrictions affect an estimated one in five applicants based on prior patterns and impact a substantial share of family-based immigration, including spouses and minor children of U.S. citizens. Bier estimates that even after accounting for potential shifts in applicant origin, the effective reduction could reach approximately 43 percent.
Fiancé(e) and spousal visas have also dropped sharply, declining by at least half by summer 2025 compared to December 2024 levels, and by 65 percent year-over-year relative to summer 2024. Additional country-based restrictions are expected to further constrain these categories.
Student visas have similarly declined. F-1 visa issuances during the peak summer season fell 40 percent from summer 2024 to summer 2025. Administration policies included visa revocations, temporary suspensions of issuance, enforcement actions tied to political speech, and country-specific restrictions affecting tens of thousands of students. Some measures, including efforts to limit international student enrollment at Harvard University, were blocked by federal courts.
High-skilled worker visas have also been affected. Monthly H-1B visa issuances in 2025 have trailed 2024 levels, and a September 2025 executive order imposing a $100,000 fee on certain petitions for workers outside the United States contributed to an 87 percent drop in those filings, according to court records. Overall, H-1B issuances are estimated to have declined by about 25 percent, with additional effects still unfolding.
Aggregating these changes, Bier estimates that reductions in legal immigration now total roughly 132,000 per month, compared to about 50,000 for illegal entries. By that measure, approximately 72 percent of the overall decline in immigration flows is attributable to cuts in legal pathways.
He notes that the comparison may understate the scale of legal reductions, as many migrants apprehended in late 2024 were not being released into the United States, and visa reallocations from restricted countries may not fully materialize.
“These cuts to legal immigration are harming U.S. citizens seeking to reunite with their spouses, fiancés, children, and other relatives,” Bier writes. “They are also undermining U.S. prosperity and increasing the U.S. deficit.”
He concludes that the pattern reflects a broader shift in policy priorities: “It is not about stopping ‘illegal’ immigration. It is a broader assault on all types of immigration.”
Federal data for recent months remains incomplete, and the full impact of newer policies is still emerging. However, the available evidence indicates that legal immigration has borne the majority of the reductions to date.
